We can get into the discussion on how important this rivalry is to the state of Texas, why it should continue to be played, and which school is right and which school is wrong in this situation. But we will leave that for others to talk about. Let's get down to talking football and which side will leave the rivalry with an eternal scoreboard on the other.
The Key Matchup: Texas' Dominating Front Seven against A&M's Pass Protection
The Longhorn team coming into Kyle Field on Thursday night isn't the powerhouse, 10 win guaranteed team we are used to seeing from Mack Brown with talent all across the board. We can argue all day on exactly how talented this young Longhorn team is, but the fact remains for this season they are weak in several key areas. One area where they are not weak and in fact may have the most talent in the conference at is along the front seven of the defense, including the defensive line and linebackers. New Texas defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has done a phenomenal job with this group taking over for now Florida head coach Will Muschamp and his all-out blitzing style plays right into their strength.As a whole, teams are currently averaging only 20.6 points per game against the Texas defense and 94.9 rushing yards per game for a 3.1 average gained per rushing attempt. That's good for 1st in the Big 12 conference and 8th nationally among FBS division schools. For sacks, the Longhorns have 22 on the season good for 35th nationally, but only 4th in the conference behind Texas A&M (1st nationally), Oklahoma (3rd nationally), and Oklahoma State (31st nationally). The Longhorns are led up front by leading tackler LB Emmanuel Acho (100 total, 44 solo, 17 TFL, 3 sacks), LB Keenan Robinson (76 total tackles, 37 solo, 5 TFL, 1 sack), DE Jackson Jeffcoat (57 total tackles, 28 solo, 16 TFL, 5 sacks) and sack leader DE Alex Okafor (44 total tackles, 18 solo, 14 TFL, 7 sacks).
For Texas A&M, the best way for the Aggies to attack the Longhorn front seven would be to come out in 4 wide receiver and 5 wide receiver packages and open up the game throwing the football. This would force Texas and Manny Diaz to take some of their best players off of the field in the front seven and instead play with 5 or 6 defensive backs in a nickel and dime package. The Longhorns rank 32nd in the country in pass defense allowing 199.6 yards per game and 9.8 yards per catch. The Aggies need to test the Longhorn's young secondary early and often. While Ryan Swope leads the Aggies with 78 receptions for 1069 yards (both school records) and 11 touchdowns on the season, there might not be a better storyline for the Aggies if senior Jeff Fuller, in his final home game at Kyle Field, where able to have a career game and erase many of the criticisms and doubts he has incurred over the course of this season. There would be no greater redemption and easier way to regain respect from the Aggie faithful than to lead the way to a Longhorn defeat on Thanksgiving. While Jeff did not start last Saturday's game against Kansas (Brandal Jackson got the starting nod), head coach Mike Sherman hinted Fuller may be making strides in both mentality and in practice to reclaim his spot on senior night. Now, let's get to the story that Aggies have been talking about most for the past couple of days: the status of Cyrus Gray. After not playing in the second half of the Kansas game and appearing on the sidelines in street clothes, Aggies have speculated on the extent of his injury. On Monday, Mike Sherman announced Gray had a stress fracture in his shoulder and has since taken to wear a sling. Will Cyrus be able to play? I don't think there is any doubt Gray, on his senior night against Texas will be suited out and ready to go. The question is how much will he play and how effective will he be. While the focus will be on the ground game going against the previously mentioned 8th best rushing defense in the country, the real focus should be on the role Gray plays in pass protection. When running the football, for the most part the running back can dictate the amount of contact and where he receives the contact. That's not the case in pass protection. After the snap, the running back is waiting to receive the contact from a rushing linebacker, not vise versa unless he tries to cut him. If Cyrus is unable to go, how much will pass protection be affected? Will we have to keep in an extra tight end limiting the amount of routes available to Ryan Tannehill that will then dictate our personnel packages? Will it hurt our 3rd down conversion percentage in what could be a close game? RB Ben Malena has showed in his limited reps this season he is a strong runner with good vision, but would he be able to pick up a blitz if called upon on a 3rd and long? That is where I believe the true question lies and something we will have to watch early in the game in how it can be a factor.
The Ugly vs the Bad
Yes, we're talking about the match-up between the Texas offense and the Texas A&M defense. While both units have been criticized for their poor play over the course of the season, when you break down the numbers, they aren't as bad as they appear to be and we may actually see good play from both of them Thursday night. The Longhorns on offense are 48th in the country averaging 405.4 yards per game and score 29.3 points per contest. When breaking up their passing to rushing yardage, you can clearly see the running game for Texas has excelled for first year offensive coordinator Byran Harsin as the Longhorns are 15th in the country rushing the ball at 223.8 yards per game but 96th in passing the football with only 181.6 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Aggies feature the 76th defense in the country. The passing defense drives the statistic down as they are 118th in the country giving up 292 yards per game but the rushing defense is 15th in the country allowing 107.8 yards per game. That means, something will have to give as the 15th ranked rushing offense faces off against the 15th ranked rushing defense.
Recently, there has been some injury concern among the Texas running backs. The Longhorns lost Fozzy Whittaker for the season and was a crucial player not only in the Longhorn running game playing as a Wildcat QB at times, but also as an explosive special teams player. Two freshman have excelled in the running game this season in Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron, but have been limited the last couple of weeks due to injuries of their own (turf toe and hamstring, respectively) although both played in last weekend's contest against Kansas State. Mack Brown informed the media on Monday while both were sore on Sunday, he expected them to be ready for Thursday's contest. If both are even close to full strength, it will go a long way for this offense with QB troubles and possibily missing their top receiver for a 4th straight game in Jaxson Shipley with a knee injury. “They’re telling me he has a chance this week, and that’s all I can tell you,” Mack Brown said. Speaking of QB troubles, the headline coming into the game for the Longhorns is the ever-changing outlook at the position. David Ash had appeared to take control of the position, however against Kansas State, his turnovers and inefficiency led to Case McCoy playing the rest of the game and appears to be the starter coming into Kyle Field. No matter who starts the game, both are expected to play and have their own strengths and weaknesses. Ash is better in using his legs in a zone-read type of offense and making plays as they break down around him. That may be an advantage as the Longhorns face the national leaders in sacks in Tim DeRutyer's zone blitzing 3-4 defense that has played well as of late thanks to Damontre Moore's play. However, McCoy seems to be the better passer at this point and the Longhorns will no doubt want to take advantage of the Aggies weakness in the secondary. On a side note, there is a chance that DB Coryell Judie plays for the first time since the Baylor game on senior night. No matter which QB plays, it will be the Longhorn receivers that have to step up and make plays for the quarterback. Missing Jaxson Shipley, someone has to take the responsibility as the leader of the group. Mike Davis appears to be the best play-maker at the position, but it may be a check-down option in TE Blaine Irby who could be the go-to guy. Either way, the quarterback will have to recognize what the Aggies are doing at the line of scrimmage, make a quick and clear decision on where to throw the football, and be able to communicate with his receivers in hot routes and comeback situations. If either McCoy and Ash is able to do that and the pass is completed on the other end, this game becomes really interesting on the outcome.
For the Aggie defense, it's as simple as an assignment as they have had all year: stop the opponents running game. There is no spread offense, no quick huddle attack. Line up, and attack downhill. Much like Kansas State did on Saturday, the Aggies need to stack the box, even as many as 10 defenders, and dare Texas to pass the football. And even if the Longhorns do decide to pass the ball, bring the house and force the young quarterback to make a quick decision putting faith in his receivers. It will be interesting to see how Tim DeRutyer lines up his defense. The Aggies haven't really played much in their base 3-4 package this year in the Big 12 and even if they do, their safties and linebackers line up a little deeper than normal to pocket against their weakness, pass defense. With a team that will rely so heavily on their running game, will A&M recognize that from the beginning of the game and overload at the line of scrimmage, walking linebackers and safties up, or line up as normal and then change as the game goes on? Either way, the Aggies have to be encouraged by the play of middle linebackers Jonathan Stewart and more importantly Steven Jenkins late in the season. The Aggies recruited and signed the JUCO Jenkins for this very type of game and he excels at closing down running lanes on a dime. If he has an exceptional night at the position, the Aggies' rushing defense will be on par or even better than their 2.7 yards allowed per rush.Everything Else
This game appears to be a pretty even match, matching strength against strength on both sides of the football. When that is the case, there are several "intangibles" that could be the ultimate factor in this game and those seem to heavily favor the Aggies. Most importantly, home field will most definitely favor Texas A&M as the Aggies play their first true night game of the season in front of what could end up being the 2nd largest crowd in Kyle Field history. The noise will of course be a factor for any QB, but that problem could become exponentially worse for Texas as an experienced QB in Ash or McCoy will be calling at the signals at the line of scrimmage. Let's not forget what kind of impact the 12th Man can have on opponents, especially on Thanksgiving Night.
If the Longhorns can't make explosive plays on offense, they might have to do so with their defense or special teams. Most Aggie fans are familiar with their team's continued struggles with turnovers as they have committed 19 on the season. However, the Longhorns aren't far behind with 18 committed on the season. That could play into any team's hands. On special teams, Texas lost it's most explosive player as previously mentioned in Fozzy Whittaker who had the Longhorn's top two individual explosive plays on the season with kickoff returns for touchdowns against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Aside from those plays, Texas' next two ranking "explosive plays" came on 56 and 55 yard connections between Garrett Gilbert and Mike Davis in their season opener against Rice. The Longhorns will have to have one or two 40+ yard momentum changing plays to walk away with a win at Kyle Field and be able to silence the 12th Man. The punting game appears to be as balanced as it could be, with A&M actually having the better net punting yardage on the season at 40.98 yards per punt and Texas at 39.43 yards per attempt. Also if the game comes down to a last second field goal, both teams have reliable kickers in Justin Tucker (14-16, long 52) and Randy Bullock (21-25, long 47). The Longhorns appear to be the more disciplined team in the penalties department, ranking 43rd in the country averaging 5.4 flags per game while Texas A&M ranks 87th with 6.7 penalties per game. In a game that appears to be neck-n-neck, one key flag could shift the balance to either side. Finally, what could be the most critical factor breaking down this game is how the last game was played for both teams. In a game that could be a knock-out, drag-out contest, Texas A&M no doubt had the easier game playing Kansas at home winning 61-7 and most of their starters coming out after one drive in the 3rd quarter compared to Texas who played probably the most physical team in the conference in Kansas State for 60 minutes. On a short week, the Longhorns can probably play with A&M for a half or three quarters, but if this game does come down to the fourth quarter, Texas A&M will most likely be fresher and the Longhorns could break down late. A&M should come out from the very beginning wanting to out muscle the Longhorns and see how they respond.
Final Prediction
It will be tough for both sides to see this long-storied rivalry come to an end for the foreseeable future. It will be a night to remember at Kyle Field for both fan bases. We've discussed how each team's strength matches the other team's strength and this game appears to be coming down to a big play either way in the 4th quarter that swings the momentum one way the other team just can't overcome. I just do not see how either David Ash or Case McCoy will be able to beat the #1 sack team in the country playing Tim DeRutyer's defense at it's best in a base package allowing him to shift up looks at the line of scrimmage on obvious passing downs. Unless the Aggies are too kind to the Longhorns and give them multiple shots at short field possessions through turnovers or miscues, I don't believe the Longhorns can drive the length of the field and keep up with a potent Aggie offense (6th in the country) with or without Cyrus Gray.
Texas A&M 27, Texas 13.
BTHO t.u.
(P.S. -- make sure you check back Sunday night to the blog as we, along with @spadilly, begin releasing documents we have obtained through FOIA requests relating to the Longhorn Network and Texas A&M's realignment into the SEC.)
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