Maybe the most intriguing match up on Saturday to a sold out Kyle Field will be when the Wrecking Crew takes the field against arguably one of the most explosive offenses in the country in Oklahoma State led by QB Brandon Weeden and star receiver Justin Blackmon. How should Tim DeRutyer and company go about stopping the Cowboy offense?
1) Contain Justin Blackmon from the Big Play
First, lets talk about how you stop the most talented player that will see the field on Saturday in 6'1 215lb junior Justin Blackmon. Last year's Biletnikoff Award winner is the most explosive receiver in the country, literally, and plays a lot taller than 6'1. Watching highlights of Blackmon, you almost feel like you are seeing a 6'3 or 6'4 receiver. It is Blackmon's long frame, build, and strong hands matched with his ability to go get the ball in the air instead of letting it come into his body that gives that impression. And it is that same explosion that causes separation between him and the defensive back off the line of scrimmage and out of cuts that also makes him one of the best jumping receivers in the game. If it's a jump ball and Blackmon has his timing right, it is almost an impossible match up to win. The Aggies are blessed to have a very experienced secondary all around to combat a receiver like Blackmon, giving them multiple options to try to stop the Big XII's best receiver. I believe the Aggies and Tim DeRutyer will come out in a bracket coverage to stop Blackmon and you will see DB Dustin Harris matched up on Blackmon early, trying to mirror his athleticism with S Trent Hunter having protection over the top, shading to Blackmon's side of the field and making sure Harris doesn't get beat deep or a underneath throw doesn't turn into a missed tackle and long gain. Having safety help with Hunter also allows Harris to play a little more aggressively and try to imitate Blackmon's physical style of play. What Harris can't do (or any defender guarding Blackmon for that matter) is be caught up with decoys underneath or other receivers trying to pick the defensive back to get Blackmon free. Harris and everyone else must know that their responsibility is to blanket Blackmon and let the linebackers deal with anyone underneath or coming into their zone over the middle. If Oklahoma State wants to dink and dunk their way down the field, let them. They are more likely to get a big play out of Blackmon that either scores or gets them into scoring range than to methodically move down the field. It's that big play ability that the Aggies can't allow. It swings momentum and silences Kyle Field, both of which are critical in this Top 10 match up. It is important to note that after three games, Blackmon has 27 receptions (14 more than the second leading receiver) for 329 yards (a 12.2 average per catch) and three touchdowns, with his largest gain of the season so far only 40 yards.
2) Don't forget about other viable receiving threats
You may be asking why not let Coyrell Judie or Terrance Frederick cover Blackmon? Why an inconsistent Harris? (Don't forget, the A&M coaches have trusted Dustin Harris to go up against big time receivers before like Georgia's AJ Green in the bowl game when Harris was still only a freshman) It is important to note that while most of the attention of Oklahoma State has been on Blackmon, QB Brandon Weeden has thrown to 13 different receivers this year. If you want to stop Oklahoma State's offense, you have to defend two other receivers as well in 6'1 223lb junior Tracy Moore (13 catches, 200 yards, 1TD) and 5'11 195lb senior Josh Cooper (14, 151, 1TD). Moore is averaging over 15 yards per reception, and Cooper is Weeden's primary third down target. Covering both effectively is a must. In my mind, having Coyrell Judie cover Moore and Terrance Frederick in the slot covering Cooper is the optimal situation. Frederick on Cooper is a very intriguing match up. Cooper has been labeled as a "poor man's Ryan Swope" and that description fits pretty well. If Frederick is able to keep Weeden's favorite third down and check down option contained while still being able to play run support in his usual nickel position, then the Aggies are going to be in for a successful day against the offense.
3) Make Brandon Weeden move in the pocket and disrupt his reads
Through two games, Texas A&M is leading the country in sacks with 5.5 per game (meantime, the A&M offense hasn't given up a sack this year yet either, also leading the country). An amazing statistic is that A&M didn't reach that sack total until game 7 of last season and that was with Von Miller, the #2 NFL Draft Pick! Its clear that the Aggies have been able to get to their opponent to begin the 2011 season. The Wrecking Crew will have to continue that success if they plan on beating Brandon Weeden on Saturday. A common misconception is that the Aggies will have to actually sack Brandon Weeden to be disruptive and stop Oklahoma State's passing game. That is not true at all. To be an effective pass rushing team, all you have to do is move Brandon Weeden in the pocket and get his eyes moving away from his primary receivers. When Oklahoma State played Arizona a couple of Thursdays ago, the Wildcats decided they were going to come out and play zone against the Oklahoma State passing attack, rushing only 3 or 4 lineman and no extra blitzers. Big mistake as the Cowboy offense tore up the Wildcat defense and made it seem like they were going through a walkthrough. Brandon Weeden was able to read the defense, find his receiver, set his feet, and make the throws he wanted to throw. Weeden is too smart and he will dissect you like that if you let him. What you must do to Weeden is pressure him just enough to where you hurry his reads, make him move around in the pocket a little so he is not able to set his feet, and hope that your experienced secondary is able to make a play on the ball (and not drop it Trent Hunter and Terrance Frederick). Weeden has proven this year he will take chances at times because he trusts his arm and and he trusts his receivers. That has led him to throw six interceptions through three games. That's two INT's per game! Weeden is money when he is relaxed and able to make a play on his terms, in large part due to his maturity (did you know Weeden is older than SuperBowl MVP Aaron Rodgers?). But if you force him to make a play, that is where he will get in trouble. With Damontre Moore back and ready to play, an improved Sean Porter and the rise of freshman pass rusher Tyrell Taylor this defense is so variable on where they can bring pressure on any given play, and that is not just through play design! While the Aggies will no doubt be sending outside linebackers, safeties, and corners off the edge, it may be the inside work of guys like Tony Jerod-Eddie and Eddie Brown along with Jerome Mathis and Kirby Ennis that will be critical to putting pressure on Weeden. If he isn't able to step up into the pocket because of rush up the middle, it's game over for the Cowboy passing game. We have to mention that Oklahoma State's offensive line may be the best the Aggies see this season and have allowed only 3 sacks up until this point. What the Aggies may be up against will be screens and draws, as well as rollouts by Weeden, to offset the pressure.
4) Be able to stop Joseph Randle like you were able to stop Kendell Hunter last year
With so much attention on Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, one thing that you can forget about is Oklahoma State's ground game with Joseph Randle who has been quietly putting together a solid season with 388 yards on 62 carries for 7 touchdowns. That's 126 yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry! Randle is also the Cowboy's 4th leading pass catcher with 12 catches for 117 yards on the season, so you also have to pay attention to him coming out of the backfield as well. Putting those two stats together, that is 165 yards of offense per game going directly through Randle. Stopping Randle is going to be a test for the Aggie inside linebackers who have several question marks coming into this contest. Players like Jonathan Stewart and Charlie Thomas have been solid but make mistakes at times. Garrick Williams has been a little disappointing while a player like Steven Jenkins could be on the rise, and the coaches just moved freshman Shaun Ward to the position this week. We know the defensive line will be disruptive at the line of scrimmage, but will the linebackers be in their right gaps and will they even be able to make the tackle? So far this season, you can't be confident in their ability to consistently do that. What may be the biggest key to stopping the ground game is how the Aggies choose to line up against Oklahoma State. We have seen A&M at times this season line up in a 2-4-5 defensive alignment where Eddie Brown and usually Kirby Ennis are the down lineman, followed by the usual four linebackers and nickel defensive back group, with Terrance Frederick playing the slot receiver. If the Aggies come out in this package on 1st and 2nd down, they will have trouble stopping Randle and his offensive line that returns all five starters. Expect big gains just like Zach Line had early in the game. However, if the Aggies are committed to coming out in their base defense on 1st down and even some 2nd down and longs, then they will have more success in stopping the run. However, its a large give and take -- put more people in to stop the run and now the passing game with Blackmon because a big threat; however, I think it would be a bigger mistake for the Aggies to play the pass first, and let Randle gash the Aggies just like SMU did in the 1st half. This Oklahoma State offensive line is just as experienced but more talented than SMU, leading to more and bigger problems for the Aggies. That kind of decision making is why Tim DeRutyer gets paid the big bucks.
Final thoughts -- As I dive into this match up more and more, I continue to think that Oklahoma State is going to have a tough time through the air on Saturday. As good as Weeden and company are, I believe that our pass rush with a Damontre Moore and Tony Jerod-Eddie combined with the experience and talent in the secondary is going to give them fits all day. What I worry about is Joseph Randle and the Cowboys ground game -- it could prove to be a huge problem early on and force Texas A&M to take the pressure off the quarterback, allowing the passing game of Oklahoma State to once again flourish. Todd Monken is the new Oklahoma State offensive coordinator and comes from the NFL -- he is going to have a more balanced approach to attacking A&M than Dana Holgorsen did and that may actually be a disadvantage for the Aggies.
Oklahoma State will put up some big plays and score some points, but I think their lack of defense will finally catch up to them. I think the Wrecking Crew will stop Oklahoma State at times and get beat on other drives; however I just don't see the Oklahoma State defense being able to stop Ryan Tannehill and company at all, unless it's because of turnovers much like one year ago in Stillwater. I am becoming more and more convinced that the Aggies would have to give this one away to Oklahoma State for them to beat A&M in front of 88,000+ on Kyle Field in front of a national audience.
Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 31 Oklahoma State 24
Excited yet? It's finally Time for Texas A&M
BTHO Oklahoma State!
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